New immigration figures from the United States show a small but meaningful shift in the EB-2 National Interest Waiver area. In the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026, USCIS approved about 42.6 percent of the EB-2 NIW petitions it processed, up from 35.7 percent the previous quarter. This figure is near the 40 percent level recently mentioned for the EB-2 NIW approval rate in 2026.
At first glance, the increase seems promising, but it needs context. The first-quarter fiscal year 2026 figure, which covers October through December 2025, shows a recovery from a recent low rather than a return to the much higher approval levels seen at the start of the decade.
What the Latest NIW Approval Statistics Show?
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, USCIS processed 5,586 EB-2 NIW petitions: 2,380 were approved, and 3,206 were denied, for an approval rate of about 42.6% and a denial rate of 57.4%.
The longer-term numbers put that quarter into perspective:
| Period | Approval Share |
| FY2022 | 95.7% |
| FY2023 | 79.6% |
| FY2024 | 71.0% |
| FY2025 | 55.2% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 35.7% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 42.6% |
This means that the most recent development is now easier to understand. Comparing Q1 with the previous quarter supports the EB-2 NIW recovery narrative for 2026, but the overall trend remains more challenging than in FY2022 or FY2023.
These percentages reflect petitions USCIS decided during the period, so applicants should not use them to predict the approval of petitions filed in the same quarter.
Why Does the 40% EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Need Context?
A single quarterly statistic cannot capture trends in EB-2 NIW adjudication. While the jump from 35.7% to 42.6% reflects more approved petitions, it does not necessarily indicate a shift in USCIS preferences. Quarterly statistics are dependent on the number and type of cases being processed.
The nuance is especially important in relation to the NIW denial rate in 2026. As mentioned above, Q1 FY 2026 had a higher percentage of denied petitions than approved petitions. Applicants should view the increase as a recovery from the previous quarter rather than as a return to a “new normal.”
This is not the only instance where a single quarter’s statistics can be misleading. As the USCIS data demonstrate, the calculated approval rate actually increased to 48.1% in Q2 and 55.3% in Q3 of FY2026.
What Does the Rebound Mean for Applicants?
While the numbers may give some idea about the overall adjudication environment, they cannot indicate the outcome of an individual petition.
Each EB-2 NIW case undergoes individual evaluation under the Matter of Dhanasar framework. Applicants must show that their endeavor has national importance, they can advance it effectively, and the U.S. would benefit from waiving the job offer and labor certification requirements.
This is why an impressive resume alone is not sufficient for a successful NIW petition. Other documentary evidence, such as publications, citations, patents, awards, employment history, recommendation letters, and other accomplishments, may matter depending on how it supports the required allegations.
For instance, under USCIS guidelines, the petitioner must describe what the foreign national wants to do in more detail than simply stating an occupation. Therefore, the petition must explain what the alien applicant proposes to accomplish and why the endeavor is of national importance.
In other words, the Dhanasar framework approval question ultimately boils down to whether the evidence supports the required elements, not the petitioners’ collective approval rate.
EB-2 NIW vs EB-1A Approval: Why the Numbers Should Not Be Compared Directly?
Applicants may consider the approval rates of EB-2 NIW vs EB-1A when comparing the two options. Although both suit highly skilled professionals, each has distinct eligibility criteria.
EB-1A targets individuals with extraordinary ability who can provide evidence of sustained national or international recognition in their field. EB-2 NIW is for professionals seeking to establish a project whose benefits justify the waiver of the job offer based on the Dhanasar framework.
Thus, a higher approval rate does not necessarily mean that the category is a better fit for every applicant. Instead, it matters to evaluate which category best matches the petitioner’s qualifications and evidence.
Should Applicants View 2026 as Good News?
The answer is cautiously positive. The increase in Q1 FY 2026 from 35.7% to 42.6% was a considerable quarter-over-quarter leap, so later FY 2026 figures suggest the increase continued beyond Q1. However, aggregate statistics will always fail to predict an individual outcome.
For prospective applicants, the focus should remain on the quality, relevance, organization, and consistency of the evidence presented in the petition. Understanding the applicable eligibility requirements and demonstrating how the evidence supports each required element can be more useful than relying solely on the overall EB-2 NIW approval rate.
Applicants should assess their EB-2 NIW eligibility through an evidence-based case analysis rather than rely on general approval statistics. Immigration service consultancies, like EB1A Experts, or immigration attorney firms offer case reviews that can help you determine whether your personal circumstances and evidence fit the criteria before you invest in the filing itself. Request a personalized EB-2 NIW case evaluation to understand how your qualifications and evidence align with the current adjudication framework.
Disclaimer:
This article provides general information and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration outcomes depend on the facts and evidence in each case.
Recommended Articles
We hope this guide to the EB-2 NIW approval rate helps you better understand recent immigration trends and what the latest statistics mean for prospective applicants. Check out these recommended articles for more insights and guidance on U.S. immigration pathways and application strategies.
